Alpine has a serious problem on its hands.
Interestingly, it’s a classic 21st century problem here: one of abundance rather than shortage. Since 2016, Alpine, previously Renault, has invested multi-million dollars annually to support their famed ‘Young Driver Academy’ that has churned out talents like Robert Kubica, Romain Grosjean and Formula E Champion Lucas Di Grassi. The results, however, look far less glamorous than the amounts being pumped in.
The last driver to be promoted into the Renault F1 Team through the driver academy was Romain Grosjean back in 2009 and that too didn’t end very well. Grosjean was deemed as the unfinished product and dropped in favour of Robert Kubica for 2010, only to be brought back 2 years later! Historically, the signs don’t look very good if you do happen to be an Alpine Junior Driver.
But who are these junior drivers on Alpine’s books today and frankly, are they any better than those from the past? Today, the Alpine driver academy has 5 drivers, with 2 of them still in Formula 3. With F3 being as volatile and time-consuming for some drivers as it is, we shall focus only on their 3 stalwarts who are knocking the door down for a Formula 1 seat by the end of the year.
The Young Drivers + The Ocon Problem
Today, Guanyu Zhou and Oscar Piastri, 2 of Alpine’s 3 F2 drivers stand first and second in the mighty competitive FIA F2 championship. Zhou in his third season finally looks close to the finished product and Piastri, the 2020 F3 champion looks right at home in only his first season. As for Christian Lundgaard, everyone on the internet and critically, in the paddock knows how far he can reach but consistent bad luck has left the face of the Alpine Academy struggling in F2 this season.
On the surface, any driver academy would gasp with excitement at this prospect, but not Alpine. Their superstar driver Fernando Alonso will stay on till ‘at least’ the end of 2022, which could comfortably be extended if Alpine nail the 2022 regulations and Esteban Ocon has been handed a whopping 3-year contract for his impressive performances. While the length of that contract has baffled many, including yours truly, that remains to be beyond the point. The situation is clear: expect no open seat at best until the end of next year.
Both Guanyu Zhou and Oscar Piastri are almost ready for Formula 1, but a seat doesn’t exist, or does it?
With all of their young drivers right at the edge of accumulating the necessary Super License points (Piastri reportedly has all that’s needed), this decision dumps 3 of the best junior drivers on the planet into the wayside, leaving many to question, ‘Well, why did you even start the academy in the first place?’
Why the Alpine Driver Academy must do something
Before their rebranding to Alpine in 2021, the Renault board of directors were seriously considering shutting down the Formula 1 program. Afterall, this clearly isn’t the most effective use of their finances, part of which comes from the French government, in the time of a ground-breaking pandemic. Regardless, they found value in carrying on but are still aiming to be as cost-effective as possible. With that in mind, the Alpine Driver Academy may be the single most expensive and inefficient unit of the entire team, failing to bring the desired end product on the table since 2009.
Of course, R&D can always be risky, but Alpine have cornered themselves with the necessary external appointments of Alonso and Ocon. At that time, the young drivers weren’t ready and now they’ve got 3 of them! What happens if they don’t do something about it? Alpine, being the pigeon has carefully crafted the best nest possible, but their indecision could leave them vulnerable to the other teams being cuckoos and laughing away with the finished product, leaving Alpine with nothing but thoughts of regret.
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For sure, more young drivers may always come along once the seats open, but what would convince the directors to carry on when there is nothing to show for? Imagine the value other teams could gain by poaching their almost-ready juniors!
Why Williams may just be their new best friends
So, we find Alpine having an abundance of top drivers waiting in the wings but with no space on the grid, since Alpine does not have an affiliate team like the other manufacturers do. However, things may not look as bleak upon closer inspection.
Back in the day, Williams and Renault were a formidable team, winning 4 drivers World Championships together between 1989 and 1997. Their relationship has always been strong and together, they made special road cars like the Renault Clio Williams and the Williams-Renault Espace F1 too! Today, their old friends may just have a solution for the future.
With Russell potentially out of the way by the end of next year, having the chance of being paid to put an exciting young talent from Alpine in the car may seem outrageous, but it has potential
Williams find themselves in a heavy restructuring phase after being bought by Dorilton Capital. The structural changes may be paramount to success, but the new owners have re-affirmed that their pay-driver era is well behind them. Soon, they will be capable of hiring drivers on merit for the first time since 2017. With George Russell very likely to jump up to Mercedes in 2022, there clearly is one seat open at Williams with none of their academy drivers looking as impressive in comparison to those at Alpine at the time of writing (that could change if Ticktum beats the likes of Zhou and Piastri).
How and why this may end up working
Should Dan Ticktum not end up beating Zhou and Piastri and accumulating the necessary Super License points, that could leave Williams with an empty seat with the option of a returning Valtteri Bottas teaming up with Nicholas Latifi (don’t worry, he’ll be here for a bit!) looking the logical step.
📉 Austrian GP – Data Analysis
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However, while Bottas brings experience, he also commands a very high salary. Indeed, the experience can come in very handy but Williams, with their internal technical kerfuffle, seem to be unlikely to challenge for any major results in 2022 as well. If Williams are confident that they may get their desired performance in a couple of years after the technical department becomes more efficient, would they want to go for the sensible but costly option of Valtteri Bottas or could they open the door to be paid to let either of Piastri or Zhou race in that seat in a loan deal?
It will indeed need many dominoes to fall in just the right places. It will also need Williams to bank on the prospect of finding another Russell in Piastri or Zhou without having to pay near as close to the salary and bonuses Bottas may command. Are they truly ready for this? Mercedes may be powerless to influence this, for they do not have a veto over the second seat at Williams.
Just how desperate is the Alpine Driver Academy about this situation?
For Alpine, this may just end up being the saving grace for their academy instead of fully losing their drivers, a situation they helped Red Bull out with temporarily in 2017 by loaning Carlos Sainz for a year. At this stage, they need to bring somebody up to Formula 1 and Williams could be in the market for a fast, exciting and marketable young driver that needs a break in F1. The prospect of being paid a premium for one seems like a win.
It is an ostentatious stopgap, yes, when Formula 1 teams get desperate, bold decisions can be made at an alarmingly swift rate.
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